Chief Curiosity Officer.

A man with light brown hair and a short beard, wearing a plaid button-up shirt, standing outdoors near a large body of water with mountains in the background.

I’ve always been obsessed with the patterns that others miss. I founded Third Variable because I saw a recurring problem: organizations are often data-rich but insight-poor. They see the correlation, but they miss the underlying drivers.

I have 15 years of experience as a researcher, data scientist and impact specialist, and nurtured my curiosity through degrees at the Universities of Oxford and Cambridge in environmental science, urban data science and health economics. I hold a PhD in environmental computation.

My career has been built on delving deep into numbers (using statistics, modelling, GIS and machine learning) and pairing them with human-centred design and empathetic stakeholder engagement.

As a recovering academic, I’ve studied some whacky things, which fall into three broad themes: nature, people and cities.

Research expertise

Close-up of a glacier's surface showing crevasses and ice formations with dark streaks and layers.
A man sleeping on the sidewalk, lying on his side with his head resting on his arm, against a brown tiled wall. He is wearing a dark jacket, jeans, and sneakers. Near his head, there is a black bag, a red apple, a paper or card, and a small object.
People walking on a busy city street at sunset with a mosque featuring domes and minarets in the background.

A winding path

My education and career has meandered – just like the glacial rivers I studied on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

A man holding an orange surfboard stands on rocky shore facing the ocean, with waves and a coastal landscape with trees and buildings in the background.

Why ‘Third Variable’?

Also known as a ‘confounding’ or ‘lurking’ variable, a third variable refers to an unmeasured effect that influences both the supposed cause and effect of a phenomenon.

Throughout my career and personal life, I have come to understand the importance of gathering a holistic picture of what’s going on, before making a change. This applies as much to government policies as it does to natural environments and human beings.

When setting up Third Variable, I felt it appropriate to acknowledge the ‘missing links’ that often go unseen in data. It’s a constant reminder to account for them in my work.

Fun fact: Third Variable’s logo is composed of a mirrored epsilon symbol (ε) and an inverted lambda symbol (𝜆). In science, epsilon typically refers to something small or negligible, and lambda commonly represents wavelength. Together, they symbolise a search to “get on the wavelength” of neglected data.

A black line graph with ice cream cone and sunglasses icons, showing a positive trend.

As sales of sunglasses go up, so do sales of ice-creams. Does this mean one causes the other? No! A lurking variable, sunshine, controls the relationship between the two.

Spreading
the nerd

I am interested in the ways research can be communicated to policymakers, decision-makers and the general public.

I abide by the mantra, “know your audience”, and try to always tailor my messaging to whoever is listening.

My efforts range from blogging on Medium, to writing briefings for parliamentarians and producing podcasts and documentaries. ​​

I also give talks about science and policy at universities, non-profits and schools.

A man with a beard and brown hair, dressed in a blue blazer and colorful shirt, is speaking at a podium during the UITP Global Public Transport Summit in Barcelona 2023, with people seated in the audience listening.