Discover the
unseen forces
in your data.

Third Variable uses data science to identify opportunities for impact.

Helping small businesses and NGOs to make better decisions for:

/// Humans /// Communities /// Societies /// Environment

A spherical object displaying lines of Greek and Latin alphabet characters against a dark background.

The unseen

Put simply, data is information. But it has many ‘unseen forces’:

1. The missed opportunity
Without the proper tools and approaches, the powerful insights that lie within datasets never actually see the light of day.

2. The misleading influence

Bad decisions are made on poorly collected or analysed data, with disastrous impacts for society, environment and business.

3. The noise of correlation

Correlation is often confused with causation, when the real causal link is an unseen factor – the ‘third variable’ that gives us our name!

4. The echo of bias

Data is often a historical record of past human decisions and systemic inequities. Data can passively perpetuate those biases long into the future .

Services

Third Variable blends data science techniques with human-centred design, to help you to thoughtfully engage with your data. The goal is for you to finally see the unseen.

The Third Way

Third Variable exists to bridge the gap between complex data and real-world impact.
The “Third Way” is defined by three core principles:

01
Gather the context

Data is never neutral. I start by immersing myself in your goals, values, and the specific environment in which you operate.

02
Uncover the insights

I don’t just look at the numbers. I look for the hidden drivers that explain why a system is behaving the way it is.

03
Leave you stronger

I don’t believe in "black box" consulting. I work alongside your teams – often on-site – to build data literacy and equip you to lead your own analytics long after I leave.

What you get

The goal is to move you from uncertainty to action. So what does our partnership together bring you?

Maximum impact

Together, we figure out how to target your resources where they generate the highest social and environmental return.

Operational independence

Your team is left with the tools, dashboards and confidence to manage data strategies independently.

Strategic certainty

Evidence-based insights that turn "gut feelings" into defensible, low-risk decisions.

Case studies

  • Three men standing outdoors in a desert-like area, two of them holding a drone controller and a drone, with a drone on a case nearby.

    WORLD BANK: Mining Deserts

    Investigating the co-existence of a mega-mine and traditional nomadic herding in Mongolia's Gobi Desert.

    READ CASE STUDY
  • Several colourful tents on a street corner in downtown Los Angeles.

    LA COUNTY: HIV Prevention

    Using AI to develop tools to improve information networks among homeless youth.

    READ CASE STUDY
  • A man in a wheelchair rolling onto a platform for an on-demand bus.

    SPARE LABS: Impact Reporting

    Spare's annual impact reports highlight its work in social impact, environmental sustainability and agency growth.

    READ CASE STUDY

  • STREETOHOME: Addiction

    Mapping hotspots of addiction in Vancouver to better plan recovery centres.

    READ CASE STUDY
  • A fleet of yellow transit buses parked in a lot, with some showing route numbers and logos for HandyDART and TransLink.

    TRANSLINK: Transit Planning

    Transit planning consultancy to help Translink identify promising areas for demand-responsive transit in Metro Vancouver.

    READ CASE STUDY
  • Aerial view of London showing the Houses of Parliament, Big Ben, Westminster Bridge, and the River Thames with boats sailing.

    UK PARLIAMENT: Water Reform

    Advising on reform to the UK’s dated water abstraction system.

    READ CASE STUDY
  • A yellow and blue MART Express bus parked at a bus stop with trees and a building in the background.

    DART: Optimising Bus Routes

    Reverse-engineering bus routes using a massive microtransit ridership dataset in Dallas.

    READ CASE STUDY

What others say

  • Black and white portrait of a young man with dark hair smiling, wearing a dark shirt with a white collar, with a 'spare' logo in a gray circle overlapping his shoulder.

    "Jerome is a master at translating messy data into clear narratives. He has a rare talent for humanizing data by distilling complex findings into plain language that stakeholders actually understand."

    Jacob Johnston | Strategy | Spare

  • A woman speaking at an outdoor event with a microphone headset, gesturing with her hand, with the logo of Protected Areas Foundation in the foreground.

    Jerome’s support was game-changing for us. He immediately grasped what we needed and understood the constraints of being a small charity as opposed to a VC-backed start-up. He helped us define and communicate our needs for a robust data architecture, and recommended a way forward that balanced our ambitions with our resources. Laying these foundations now will save us so much time and money down the line.

    Kat Bruce | Head of Communities and Data | Protected Areas Foundation

  • Round logo with teal and yellow background halves, featuring the text 'WING WOMAN LEBANON' in blue and black letters.

    Despite limited familiarity with the communities and Lebanon’s complex context, Jerome flagged things we hadn’t considered, helped assess the reliability of the data, and suggested areas for further exploration. The report was clear and professional, saving me a lot of time preparing it for partners.

    Melie Pemberton | Cofounder | Wing Woman Lebanon

  • "We used to have no way of recording data. Jerome built up our system layer-by-layer, making refinements without overwhelming us. He generously donated his time to our charity over 3 years: that tells you everything about his passion for good data to make the world a better place."

    Johannes Petersen | CEO | Aban Outdoor

  • "Jerome's passion and professionalism when developing our scientific programme for our charity was truly fantastic. It elevated our offering to the next level."

    Craig Mathieson | Founder | Polar Academy

  • Black and white photo of a smiling man sitting at a table in a modern, casual office space. The man has dark hair and a beard, wearing a light-colored button-up shirt. There is a logo with the word "spare" in a dark circle overlapping the bottom left of the photo.

    "Jerome can be both a generalist and an expert, able to wear many hats in different roles. From leading a data science team and scaling a data strategy in a growing startup to solving deeply technical problems with his academic rigor, he brings so much to the table."

    Diogo Travassos | Data Science Lead | Spare

Let’s talk!

Whether you have a fully-formed data strategy or just a nagging feeling that your current metrics are missing the point, I’d love to hear from you. I can occasionally offer reduced rates and pro-bono work for NGOs.

Get in touch at: jerome@thirdvariable.co.uk

You can also find me on Linkedin.

A smiling man with a beard and brown wavy hair, wearing a patterned shirt and a blazer, in a setting with dark background and blue lights.